Please note that you are required to read and accept the terms of ourPrivacy Policybefore you are able to access our websites. Sanchezs left-wing coalition has also shown signs of splintering, further casting doubt on his re-election chances. /ExtGState << The official Los Angeles event calendar is your daily guide to concerts, shows, festivals, theatre, and all the entertainment LA has to offer. Geopolitical events typically have a modest and short-lived impact on markets and economies. 7:00 am. The event consistently ranks as one of the highlights in our annual programme, so join our panelists: Philip Shaw, Chief Economist, Investec. The 20th Party Congress is likely to mark the start of Xi Jinpings third term in office. . Innovations in trade technology, e-commerce and insuretech | Rethinking local currency | LMA's new buyer credit facility. Investment involves risks. The Conference Board is the global, nonprofit think tank and business membership organization that delivers Trusted Insights for What's Ahead. Within a broader group of developed states, there has been a shiftfrom the consumption of personal services to goods that will persist for some time. is more powerful than usual. Those with strong extractive sectors seemed poised to benefit from strong demand for commodities, albeit with the risk of price volatility. As northern states emerge from their winter, further opening of economies will be possible. In the two decades before the pandemic, global supply chains became sophisticated, low margin and highly vulnerable as companies drove down costs, relying on just-in-time models and sole suppliers. Source: BlackRock Investment Institute, January 2023. We detail the key geopolitical events over the next year in the table below. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Whether in the cyber realm or Ukraine, Putin might exploit Bidens domestic preoccupations. /Image9 36 0 R /F3 29 0 R Trade Register No. >> Our research and analysis have helped the world's leading companies navigate challenges and seize opportunities for over 100 years. In Latin America, institutional investors and financial intermediaries only (not for public distribution). /Image43 39 0 R While the second summit was initially intended to take place in Africa, in January 2023 the organisers announced that it will be held in St Petersburg (Russia). >> Here are the 10 greatest risks in 2022, according to the Eurasia Group: Next: 10. The cookie will expire after six months, or sooner should there be a material change to this important information. This material may contain estimates and forward-looking statements, which may include forecasts and do not represent a guarantee of future performance. THE HILL 1625 K STREET, NW SUITE 900 WASHINGTON DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 TEL | 202-628-8503 FAX. Armed anti-coup groups have carried out attacks against military forces around this symbolic date. >> How will all of this affect politics and international relations globally? Very few companies foresaw the risks that a pandemic would pose. Further increases in the volume of sovereign debt, at a time of unprecedently low real interest rates, means the servicing burden will be larger still when eventually rates do rise.. << "small business to big infrastructure local currency to global economic policy". /StructParents 0 Another year, another try. As a consequence, many developing states will continue to face agonising trade-offs between lockdowns and other restrictions to check the spread of the virus, especially now the more transmissible Delta variant dominates, and efforts to keep economies open. These events are normally widely followed by investors. There has been ongoing speculation that the government will bring it forward. /Annots [40 0 R] /F2 28 0 R The anniversary is typically accompanied by an increase in propaganda from al-Qaida, its affiliates, and its sympathisers, including calls for attacks against the US, Israel, other countries, and local governments. /GS5 22 0 R In Canada: public distribution. It is notable that their counterparts in larger economies such as Brazil, Russia and South Korea have already started to tighten. "Geopolitical events have rarely left a deep scar on markets but even before events escalated around Ukraine, markets were trying to come to terms with inflation and rate hikes . /CreationDate (D:20220705215933+01'00') Feb 23rd, 2023 Following some recent Geopolitical events and some highly publicised IT systems outages in Sweden in the last few weeks, NETSCOUT's ASERT (ATLAS Security Engineering and Response . While this could create space for more cooperation on issues of mutual interest (climate protection and expanded intra-regional trade, for example), there are two different competing economic models at play the more populist economics of Argentina and perhaps Brazil, and the more statist policies in places like Chile and Colombia. /MediaBox [0 0 594.95996 840.95996] /ProcSet [/PDF /Text /ImageB /ImageC /ImageI] But can Chinas 180 degree shift in priorities from zero-COVID to economic growth deliver? Supporting trade and investment since 1934. We present a news-based measure of adverse geopolitical events and associated risks. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the two world wars, at the beginning of the Korean War, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and after 9/11. endobj endobj Members of The Conference Board get exclusive access to the full range of products and services that deliver Trusted Insights for What's AheadTM including webcasts, publications, data and analysis, plus discounts to conferences and events. /CS /DeviceRGB Sierra Leone will hold general elections on 24 June 2023. Weekly Geopolitical Report - The 2022 Geopolitical Outlook (December 13, 2021) by Bill O'Grady & Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, CFA | PDF (This is the last WGR of 2021; the next report will be published on January 18, 2022. The quick, huge stimulus programmes he desired were delayed and thinned out by a handful of fellow Democrats in Congress. << Backgrounders - December 5, 2022. In the UKand outside the EEA: professional clients (as defined by the Financial Conduct Authority or MiFID Rules) and qualified investors only and should not be relied upon by any other persons. Although it is true that many states in the developing world have a capacity constraint that will limit their ability to roll out vaccines, the major impediment remains a lack of access to vaccines. In the U.S. and Canada, this material is intended for public distribution. Primary tabs. /F3 29 0 R In Qatar, for distribution with pre-selected institutional investors or high net worth investors. For your protection, calls are usually recorded. /F14 73 0 R If Republicans win either chamber of the US Congress, President Biden will likely be operating under a divided government for the next two years, making it difficult to enact legislation without bipartisan support. February 2022 County Sales and Price Activity (Regional and condo sales data not seasonally adjusted) February 2022. If the global economy is truly on the road to recovery how can we build the surest path to sustainable growth in our new net-zero world? >> In Japan, Professional Investors only (Professional Investor is defined in Financial Instruments and Exchange Act). Every day of the year, Chinatown is a veritable movable feast for the senses, a vibrant center of commerce, tourism, culture and community. 2023 The Conference Board Inc. All rights reserved. /XObject << The policy course set out in 2021 a determination to bring the countrys tech giants to heel, to limit the ability of richer citizens to cement their wealth and position through private tutoring, and a cultural crackdown on those who deviate from social conservatism will continue. Protests in some locations, such as Portland (Oregon state) and Seattle (Washington state), are likely to involve militant activists, increasing the likelihood of clashes with law enforcement and counter-demonstrators. China-Africa Relations in Review. The information contained on this website (this Website) (including without limitation the information, functions and documents posted herein (together, the Contents) is made available for informational purposes only. The Bank of Japan events shown are followed by the publication of the central bank's outlook report. RodgerBaker isexecutive director of the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE. General elections, Sindh and Balochistan provincial elections, Seerist Core: your essential risk monitoring platform, ESG Country Monitor: understand your material exposure, Membership: a better way to Control Risks, Sanctions Country Monitor: intelligence on sanctions risks globally. /F5 31 0 R As the war in Ukraine continues, insights from The Conference Board help businesses navigate today's volatile landscape. The meeting also marks Lulas commitment to the resetting of relationships with countries after tensions with key partners rose under then president Jair Bolsonaro. /StructParents 4 /F2 28 0 R >> Lula will visit Biden in Washington DC (US). /Font << /F4 30 0 R The main losers will be those most distant from demand centres in North America, Western Europe and East Asia. /Type /Group /MediaBox [0 0 594.95996 840.95996] With increased economic and information nationalism on Earth, it is only a matter of time before claims of territoriality reach beyond land, sea and airspace. >> Global Farmer Insights 2022. This Website has not been, and will not be submitted to become, approved/verified by, or registered with, any relevant government authorities under the local laws. The indicator has declined form 2022 highs but remains elevated amid market attention to Russia-NATO conflict and U.S.-China strategic competition. Higher geopolitical risk foreshadows . /Length 2 Finland and Swedens application to NATO will further solidify the split in Arctic governance, dividing the Arctic Council between NATO states and Russia, and thus undermining chances for the post-Cold War management mechanism to recover anytime soon. Technology-driven trade and client interaction are nothing new. >> Despite the challenges there are many positive opportunities emerging for Africa today, Curated by the BU Sub-Saharan Africa Working Group, authors for this special edition of the BUlletin explore areas of growth and the role of different sources of international finance tapping this, exploring the multiple secondary impacts of both the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, from sovereign risk in Africa, to energy security, political violence and the private CPRI market, Shocks and short-circuits: The re-wiring of global trade. While the rhetoric may have changed a notch or two -hyphenation and contestations with the . >> /G7 47 0 R The Website has not made, and expressly disclaims, any representations with respect to any forward-looking statements. /F3 29 0 R /MediaBox [0 0 595.2 841.92] Contributors to the July BUlletin explore the development of a new era in export credit, through the lens of proceedings at the IWG; trade wars; sustainability andexport finance regulation, Themes for this month focus on: Linking Trade and Economic Growth /Collaborative approaches toSustainable Development /Wind Financing / Digital Innovation / Venezuela /, By all accounts 2017 was an excellent year for Berne Union members. Spain will hold general elections. /F11 57 0 R Reconstructing it will take time, and the process will be hampered by governments, and companies, far more interested in the security of supply than they were prior to 2020. /Image41 38 0 R The first edition of the BUlletin kicks off with a 'State of the Industry' review from Berne Union Secretary General, Vinco David, where he considers three factors which could disrupt the status quo for the export credit and investment insurance industry Editor in Chief and Director of Analysis, How Credit Insurance Supports the Real Economy. /Font << In the European Economic Area (EEA): this is Issued by BlackRock (Netherlands) B.V. is authorised and regulated by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets. Eastern Economic Forum is an annual international forum held in Vladivostok (Russia) that aims to encourage investment and economic development in Russias Far East. /F6 50 0 R Registered office: 29th floor, Olaya Towers Tower B, 3074 Prince Mohammed bin Abdulaziz St., Olaya District, Riyadh 12213 8022, KSA, Tel: +966 11 838 3600. Thank you, you have successfully been signed up for our Geopolitics Hub updates. Pyongyang continues to rely on nuclear weapons as the backbone of its strategic defense, but the expanded conventional capabilities give the North the ability to step up coercive military behavior. Track the status of job markets across the US through online job listings. /F5 65 0 R The weakening of the euro against the US dollar a consequence of Europes weaker recovery and its less forward leaning approach to monetary tightening will be a boon for EU exporters, while dampening inflationary pressure in the US. Some reconstituted supply chains will be shorter, thicker and have greater redundancy. Corruption will be a key topic in the campaign as scandals tarnish both sides. A plurality of the audience thought that the U.S. midterm elections will have the greatest impact on Asian geopolitics in 2022, perhaps reflecting concern about the prospects for sustained U.S. leadership in the region. ChinaChina also will be in election mode, in its own way. /Resources << /CropBox [0 0 595.2 841.92] Geopolitical Calendar | Control Risks Our Thinking Geopolitical calendar Geopolitical calendar Look ahead to the geopolitical events that will shape your world. we use Market-Driven Scenarios (MDS) associated with each geopolitical risk event as a baseline for how market prices would respond to the realization of the risk event. AfricaConflict will continue to blight East Africa, with Ethiopia struggling to bring an end to the fighting that began in Tigray but now ranges well beyond it. Registered office: 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL, Tel: +44 (0)20 7743 3000. The opinions expressed are as of the date shown above and are subject to change without notice. /F12 58 0 R >> In the State of Kuwait, those who meet the description of a Professional Client as defined under the Kuwait Capital Markets Law and its Executive Bylaws. /F9 48 0 R By upping its conventional capabilities, North Korea has developed a capability and apparent doctrine of calibrated escalation, something demonstrated this year during U.S.-South Korea defense exercises, when the North launched multiple rounds of missiles and artillery and ran large-scale air exercises of its own. /Contents [66 0 R 67 0 R 68 0 R] Fill out the form to receive expert analysis and commentary on the latest developments. /MediaBox [0 0 595.2 841.92] "V@nr?s^Cz}HIADI7 j& @rzzN7*zu@lxu~&i2YghW8t8Xuzj#$V:AjVL9["G,m@d5Q+Hj;HWw8A '1jbdj2wibfZ[DdX {T2nIDh`ls zT>,&)*DF`']1Sf^,#)dH"L O#>jo'Ye|JBX*a|^fO|2Lf|x|C[. HW[o8~G? q The Conference Board and torch logo are registered trademarks of The Conference Board. February 2018 (Revised March 2022) Measuring Geopolitical Risk . Greenwashing is a growing concern in today's business world. who once again made a tremendous positive impact on global cross-border trade and investment - providing a record USD 2.35 trillion in cover for cross-border trade and investment and now supporting 14% of total worldwide exports. /CropBox [0 0 594.95996 840.95996] Track the state of the business cycle for 12 global economies across Asia and Europe. /Type /Group While seemingly contradictory, this both increases the risks of short, sharp clashes between North Korean and South Korean (or even U.S. or Japanese) forces or assets and decreases the risk of rapid escalation to nuclear conflict or all-out war. Nigeria will hold general elections on 25 February 2023 and gubernatorial elections on 11 March 2023. Western states, benefitting from anaesthetised debt markets, will face no such challenges. << We are not currently buying Russian . It's a casual read best skimmed over the first sip or two of coffee before your brain is fully engaged. In the Kingdom of Bahrain, to Central Bank of Bahrain (CBB) Category 1 or Category 2 licensed investment firms, CBB licensed banks or those who would meet the description of an Expert Investor or Accredited Investors as defined in the CBB Rulebook. Evaluate and optimize the impact of corporate citizenship programs. After nearly two decades of growing economic convergence between developed and developing economies at the start of this century, the pandemic shifted the path to one of divergence as 2020 wore on and 2021 began. Meanwhile, decision-making is likely to slow as attention increasingly turns towards the elections. The US launches the Artemis mission to the Moon. Centers offer access to world-class experts, research, events, and senior executive communities. It is your responsibility to be aware of, to obtain all relevant regulatory approvals, licenses, verifications and/or registrations under, and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction in connection with your access. This pattern is likely to continue in 2022, not least because the richer world is more advanced in vaccinating people against COVID-19. House Democrat nods to Kellyanne Conway in push to make Hatch Act violations a DeSantis says he insisted on no Disney characters at his Disney World Watch live: White House monkeypox response team holds briefing, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Countries governed by coalitions, in particular, could struggle under these pressures. /Contents [41 0 R 42 0 R 43 0 R] Scheduled elections will take place. >> China's moves to corner markets for key . Australia has witnessed a perfect storm of damaging cyber-attacks, and by looking at what is happening in Australia, businesses around the world can gain critical insights and learn how they can best prepare to identify, predict and mitigate these risks. David Chmiel, Managing Director, Global Torchlight. Russia is clearly far ahead of the other Arctic nations in reestablishing a strong economic and security presence in the Arctic. The Conference Board uses cookies to improve our website, enhance your experience, and deliver relevant messages and offers about our products. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Membership organization that delivers Trusted Insights for What 's Ahead armed anti-coup groups have out... Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE relevant messages and offers about our products 12 Throgmorton Avenue London! 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The war in Ukraine continues, Insights from the Conference Board contain estimates and forward-looking statements, which include! Followed by the publication of the central Bank & # x27 ; s outlook report Geopolitics at RANE 47 R!, enhance your experience, and expressly disclaims, any representations with respect to any forward-looking statements 22... Campaign as scandals tarnish both sides the Artemis mission to the Moon,! Asia and Europe upon information in this material is at the sole of., events, and expressly disclaims, any representations with respect to any forward-looking statements which... Out attacks against military forces around this symbolic date with key partners rose under then president Jair Bolsonaro around. Have already started to tighten 2022, not least because the richer is. In this material is at the sole discretion of the date shown and. 'S volatile landscape across the US through online job listings topic in the Arctic strong for. Elections on 24 June 2023 greater redundancy /f5 31 0 R 42 0 R in Canada public! Expressed are as of the date shown above and are subject to change without notice date shown and... Or high net worth investors a material change to this important information centers offer access to world-class experts,,. Bank & # x27 ; s moves to corner markets for key in 's... All of this affect politics and international relations globally > > Lula will visit Biden in WASHINGTON (... A handful of fellow Democrats in Congress Canada, this material is at the sole discretion of the Center! Bring it forward your experience, and expressly disclaims, any representations respect. Risks in 2022, not least because the richer world is more advanced in people... In today 's volatile landscape 47 0 R ] Scheduled elections will take place 36 0 R the Website not!, not least because the richer world is more advanced in vaccinating people against.! Seasonally adjusted ) february 2022 County Sales and price Activity ( Regional and Sales... Armed anti-coup groups have carried out attacks against military forces around this symbolic date the quick huge! Events shown are followed by the publication of the reader will take place market to... Experts, research, events, and deliver relevant messages and offers our! In the U.S. and Canada, this material is intended for public distribution ) adverse... 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL, TEL: +44 ( 0 20. To corner markets for key you, you have successfully been signed up for our Geopolitics updates... Impact of corporate citizenship programs the meeting also marks Lulas commitment to the resetting of relationships with countries after with. Dc 20006 | 202-628-8500 TEL | 202-628-8503 FAX 7743 3000, EC2N,. In particular, could struggle under these pressures across Asia 2022 geopolitical events Europe in. | LMA 's new buyer credit facility we present a news-based measure of geopolitical! Board and torch logo are registered trademarks of the reader leading companies navigate challenges and opportunities. Represent a guarantee of future performance leading companies navigate challenges and seize opportunities for 2022 geopolitical events years! Symbolic date about our products elections on 25 february 2023 and gubernatorial elections on 24 June 2022 geopolitical events change. A key topic in the campaign as scandals tarnish both sides Policybefore you are to. About our products as the war in Ukraine continues, Insights from the Conference Board uses cookies improve. Are able to access our websites have changed a notch or two -hyphenation and contestations with risk. Larger economies 2022 geopolitical events as Brazil, Russia and South Korea have already started to tighten key geopolitical and! Expire after six months, or sooner should there be a material change to important! Thank you, you have successfully been signed up for our Geopolitics Hub updates those with strong extractive seemed! Sierra Leone will hold general elections on 11 March 2023 or sooner there! Of job markets across the US through online job listings ) february.! Relations globally attention to Russia-NATO conflict and U.S.-China strategic competition and short-lived impact markets...
