All of the its fighting elements are in the process of qualitative force transformations, which would continue to provide the ADFs operators with the technological edge. The question is, how much of this time Australian defence planners have factored in, and whether the question of replenishment depends largely on uninterrupted overseas supply or a mixed solution involving domestic sustainment capacity. When it comes to assessing a countrys fighting potential on a comparative basis, a number of major contributing factors needs to be taken into account. If there is a war with China, it will most likely be over its efforts to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. 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"China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000-tonne "maritime safety" vessels, and . [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. Based on history, a war is in the making. The Transformation of China. The Agenda. There is a statement that I adhere to, and it is Roosevelt when he was Secretary of State in 1921 basically admitted he knew Japan would eventually attack America, (due to the way the West had treated Japan, that would be the British, Dutch and the Americans) he just didnt know when. The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. The largest ever Australian warship sunk in battle, HMAS . In short, Senator Lambies outburst is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless. Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and a blame game over the . In March, Adm. Philip Davidson, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command at. The Islands that Japan is arguing over were residue of second world war negotiations in which the pre-war possessions should eventually return to China. There ya go. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Australia is a sitting duck (like pre-war Poland was for Nazi Germany & Stalinist Russia), due to the fact, that we are under-populated, have some of our best resourced land run by corrupt Aboriginal communities who over-charge mining companies rip-off rates for the privilege of digging up the north of Australia. The suggestions that Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken. This time has taken two decades and it is now in that place, or in simpler terms, China is now a major actor on the world stage and moreover, one that is prepared to back its position/s up with military force if need be. In the context of the Chinese hypothetical invasion threat, two problem factors can be identified: the fighting force and the question of endurance. Also, America will be tormented with fiscal and political problems in the next two decades which will continue to render an already war-weary nation to be dubious about entering another war. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. With all the talk of hurting Russia economically a Western European expert said theres the very real chance Russia will turn to China, and China wont hesitate to step into the breech. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. (including Australia). It is not unreasonable to assume that from the Peoples Liberation Armys (PLA) strategic and operational planning perspectives Australia represents both a relatively easy and, paradoxically, a challenging target. It would be the nightmare from hell to contain. The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. China has moved in a truly global direction and is on a pathway that was triggered, and then further stimulated, by Premier Deng Xiaoping who started the process in the mid-1980s. April 29, 2022 - 5:54AM Australia will probably be at war with China by the end of the decade, a leading foreign policy expert has said. This article was first posted on Strobes blog Geo-Strategic Orbit and has been reproduced with permission. I must admit I skimmed this piece. China has issued yet another warning to Australia following its participation in a seven-day naval exercise with French, US and Japanese allies. The question of what type of war the ADF should be prepared to fight represents one of the ongoing points of debate in Canberra and beyond. Historical Statistics. @ stephengb: I cannot hep wondering why discussions about taxation. China to INVADE Australia? In parallel with this the other issue for Australia will be whether Australia is also able to fend off Americas increasing desperation to maintain its traditional post-WWII foothold as it too, and in order to fulfil its rebalancing claims, must enter the regional quarrels. The environment may well pan out to be the greatest battle we have ever fought. But is it? Fairfax Media: Melbourne, 11 August, 2011, 13. Included in demanding of good governance from others there has been an acceptance of appalling behaviours from the West per se in favouring those that have served the needs of the West: Singapore and Saudi Arabia being leading examples of this phenomenon. It responded with an unprecedented wave of . But the nation is not in a good place. For Australia the decisions that will have to be made, in order to totally avoid an outbreak of war one in which Australia for all intent and purposes will inevitably lose and one that would encourage a ground invasion by Chinese forces is where to place China as these regional machinations increase? US secretary of State John Kerry uses Asia-Pacific to redouble focus on region. Australia Network News, 14 August, 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world. Geography still plays a very important part in war. Australia could not repel military aircraft if they landed from carriers offshore, he goes on to say. The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. On the other hand, China deploys a comprehensive capability to engage in protracted offensive cyber operations against its adversaries. Updated at 01.00 EST Have a friend who was Ambassador to China and it would not take much to regain their respect. The wild claims continue later in the advert, with former Royal Australian Navy commander Phil Collins saying it has the facilities to support and sustain large-scale naval operations. Jacqui Lambie warns that a Chinese invasion of Australia is a frightening possibility. Writing in the national business daily, the Australian Financial Review, international relations specialist James Curran asks a different question.What lessons should Australia draw from Vladimir Putin's invasion for managing a comparable crisis in Taiwan? Whoops that cant be right. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. Australia's forces are dwarfed by China's People's Liberation Army Credit: AFP. the fighting force - its peacetime and wartime strength, and human mobilisation potential (organized defence reserves and potential for a larger-scale mobilisation); capacity to fight - state of combat readiness and preparedness, including levels of training and operational experience or both deployable units and reserves; state of command and coordination structures; morale and determination to fight; state of military science/strategic and military thought; order of battle - deployable combat and support capabilities and technological edge; endurance - state of national non-human reserves (arsenals, munitions, spare parts, fuel and lubricants and their replenishment capacity); alliances - state of existing alliances; levels of command and fighting elements integration; coordination and planning; foreign military presence and bases; levels of commitment and reliance. Now, try to find out where all our Gold and other more precious commodities have been going and then why our Conservative US backed Governments have sold out our Reserves? News By Simon Green Assistant Editor (Digital) 15:20, 15 FEB 2019 Updated 20:17, 15 FEB 2019 Video Loading United Australia Party leader warns of Chinese takeover The maximum upload file size: 2 MB. China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific. The Age, Melbourne: Fairfax Publishing Ltd, 10 June, 2014, 16. Francis Fukuyama would deem the collapse of communism to be the end of history,[7] which translates in simpler terms, to liberal-democracy as a form of government winning against communism. There is however, more to all of these events in terms of them being simply categorized as overt acts of violence that have a focused outcome namely territorial acquisition through force and it is within this spectrum that Senator Lambie alludes to, that can be given a perspective. Dear Jaquie, please define what you consider to be statesmanship. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. For, In the world of Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, the Albanese Governments, From African gang violence to persecuted white South African farmers, Peter Dutton. Ill give a dollar to anyone who actually read all that. The ADF should be readying itself for a conflict with a major military power. The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong's brutal communist regime. Returning to the initial centrepiece of Lambies argument and notion of whether Australia is in danger of being invaded in the traditional sense of the term. Once again the making of such a statement can be given credence by observing that America is fiscally bankrupt to China, and owes the PRC trillions of dollars and the US would simply not risk China calling in its debt/s as this would devastate the US domestic economy. From the big bad Toniorists. In the process of the West winning however, there has also been double-standards along the way which have undermined the faith and confidence in Western governance and the damage this has caused should not be underestimated. This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear whether it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes. Australia also has rare earths and God knows what PNG has still yet? Have to say this article is laced heavily with pessimism and fear mongering and while perhaps philosophical in its undertaking, it doesnt hit the mark. Other examples of atrocious behaviour are incursions by France into Algeria to stem independence movements and its claims on (French) Indo-China; the US and Allied invasion of Iraq in 1991 in order to gain a New World [American/Western-driven] Order;[8] the second invasion of Iraq under false pretence in 2003 is to name only a few instances in which Western geo-political and geo-strategic double-standards with regard to good governance have reigned supreme. A superior force could, by definition, prevail in any circumstances, but flying combat aircraft into these company airfields is sensational nonsense, he said. A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. The US has no real strategic interests in the Western Pacific region, but insists on imposing its interpretation of what is acceptable in governance on the region why, because it sees itself as heading an empire and an imperial power makes its own rules for governance. The present Lambie redneck doctrine of Invasion by China or Indonesia harks back to Menzies and his yellow peril election Arrows and like the Menzies arrows Lambies redneck doctrine is just a ploy to stay elected. As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. How did it satisfy the demands of its ever-growing middle-classes? You can upload: image, audio, video, document, spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, code, other. Look at her picture and there you will see the face of extremism, ignorance and arrogant racism. We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. And correspondingly, where to place the US? Maybe it would be useful to calculate the number of democratically elected Governments the US has deposed compared to China. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. The time of this dominance is coming to an end, as China is on the rise. To be sure, the US essentially having been sidelined to that of an equal rather than a superior player in the next decade is already being put into place by China. However, and crucially for Australia, underpinning this is America does not want to modify its approach to the region; and wishes the status quo to remain within the post-WWII and Cold War parameters. Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. Pure Ideological myopia driven by self-interested alliances and not fact. New York: Free Press, 1992. "Our judgement at least is that (China's . By 2001 Western Europe comprised 6.4% of the worlds population and at this time, the entirety of the West/Western European population of the world was approximately 14%. Or by navigating to the user icon in the top right. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. Also our most northern city, Darwin (or Wolf Creek) is a complete joke ! Former airforce pilot in CHILLING warning over airstrip AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. We are proud, as with every other Ukrainian in Australia, to proclaim that Ukraine stands: Ukraine stands strong, Ukraine stands proud, and, most importantly, Ukraine stands free. Read more. Australia has no political leader capable of seeing the futility of following the US line in Asia. Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. (Defence Department: Leading Seaman Daniel Goodman) 'War would impoverish us all' It can also enhance themoral readiness and the determination of troops to fight and win under any circumstances, including unfavourable battle conditions (for example, in the absence of air superiority or sustained logistics). Dr Strobe Driver reports. The Chinese are already quietly invading us in droves, buying up huge amounts of property and investment. Part of the danger Australia faces in the future as China moves out into the world, is that the world will have to accommodate the PRCs needs, and by necessity its people. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. Australians must face the fact that China is determined to invade Taiwan and in a China-dominated region we won't enjoy the freedoms we assume are our birthright. Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. What is bound to happen in the near future however, is the A-P region will become increasingly contested, and the disputes will become protracted. You can donate through PayPal or credit card via the button below, or donate via bank transfer: Your email address will not be published. At any rate Australia is in trouble. China is expanding in the same way Britain did during the IR and has resulted in it being keen to stamp its authority on the A-P region and what is important to Australia is that the trajectory of China has had two specific outcomes: China is becoming a military and economic juggernaut and had established the A-P as its epicentre; and this has resulted in the panicking of the US. You can upload: image, , video, , spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, , . But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. There is also the strategic dilemma of allied relations and subsequent wartime commitments, following the Trump administration's damage to US reliability as a security guarantor. If the Chinese could not bring fuel, spare parts and munitions to these airfields the aircraft would immediately be candidates for the war museum in Canberra.. The reason this is not probable is the state-of-affairs regarding invasion are dictated by sheer logistics and materil requirements for an invasion to succeed and then be sustained. Agree also with Trevor that it is a hark back to the old beware of the yellow peril days. Despite its massive standing force, including noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, it is not fit to conduct a successful cross-strait amphibious invasion of nearby Taiwan (Chinas number one strategic and operational priority), let alone engage in a long distance strategic hypothetical such as an invasion of Australia. Sydney: Murdoch Press. Selling more and more of our assets (mineral companies and FREEHOLD farming land) is moving the country to a checkmate position with China controling its assets. thank goodness Irvine is retiring before he starts some form of Hitler Youth thing to spy on their neighbours. The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. Unless Westerners understand thick face black heart they will get nowhere in Asia. Your contribution to help with the running costs of this site will be gratefully accepted. After the next decade for Australia all will not be so secure. On 23 April this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed off the PLA Navy's production capacity by commissioning at a single ceremony the Hainan amphibious assault ship, the Changzheng-18 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, and the Dalian destroyer. In the first instance an Asian nation has never presented such a symbolic threat to Western hegemony; and secondly, never has an Asian nation had the actual potential to follow through in a sustained/long tern way with military force. Remember our diplomats are not representative of our government and as career bureaucrats have a much more subtle take on diplomacy and very personal cntacts with its leaders. This is the stupidity of permitting foreign governments to purchase our farming land and mineral assets. There is an accommodation that will need to be given over to China and a significant point to focus upon is to observe an historical element, and to realize within it lies a chilling and changing demographic. 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